By Josh Holder
2024 polls suggest the Conservatives may lose most of their seats.
50%
25%
17.7% Ipsos Mori
16.6% YouGov
Past share of seats held
by the Conservatives
11.1% Survation
0%
1951
1966
1983
1997
2010
2024
0%
25%
50%
1951
Past share of seats held
by the Conservatives
1966
1983
1997
2010
2024
2024 polls suggest the Conservatives may lose most of their seats.
Ipsos Mori
Survation
YouGov
0%
25%
50%
1951
Past share of seats held
by the Conservatives
1966
1983
1997
2010
2024
2024 polls suggest the Conservatives may lose most of their seats.
Survation
YouGov
Ipsos Mori
2024 polls suggest the Conservatives may lose most of their seats.
50%
25%
17.7% Ipsos Mori
Past share of seats held
by the Conservatives
16.6% YouGov
11.1% Survation
0%
1951
1966
1983
1997
2010
2024
2024 polls suggest the Conservatives may lose most of their seats.
50%
25%
17.7% Ipsos Mori
16.6% YouGov
Past share of seats held
by the Conservatives
11.1% Survation
Length
of term
0%
1951
1966
1983
1997
2010
2024
The Conservatives have dominated British politics for 14 years, holding onto power through crisis after crisis, including some of their own making.
Now, as unhappy Britons prepare to go to the polls, the Conservatives are facing the prospect of irrelevance. Polls suggest they could secure their lowest share of seats in Parliament in perhaps a century.
After a turbulent five years of government, their base has fractured.
Some are going left, with the party polling around 20 percentage points behind Labour. Others are heeding the lure of the hard right, with a third of those Britons who voted Conservative last time now saying they will support the anti-immigration Reform party, led by Nigel Farage.
Polls suggest the election results could be catastrophic for the Conservatives. While polling often narrows as an election gets closer, Conservative fortunes have shown little sign of improving.
Here are some key reasons why:
Voters feel the country is worse off
Many voters say they feel the Conservative party has left Britain in a worse state than before it came to power.
Promising to finalize Brexit, which took Britain out of the E.U., was a big vote winner for Conservatives in the last election. Britons have other concerns now. This time, they say, the biggest issues are the economy and health care, followed by immigration. And voters think Labour is better prepared to handle all three, according to polling from YouGov.
Voters’ top issues are no longer Conservative strengths
What Britons said were the top issues facing the country
Dec. 2019
June 2024
Economy
Brexit
Health
Health
Immigration
Environment
Housing
Economy
Environment
Crime
Defense and security
Immigration
Crime
Housing
Education
Education
Brexit
Defense and security
Tax
Welfare benefits
Dec. 2019
June 2024
Economy
Brexit
Health
Health
Immigration
Environment
Housing
Economy
Environment
Crime
Defense and security
Immigration
Crime
Housing
Education
Education
Brexit
Defense and security
Tax
Welfare benefits
Dec. 2019
June 2024
Economy
Brexit
Health
Health
Immigration
Environment
Housing
Economy
Environment
Crime
Defense and security
Immigration
Crime
Housing
Education
Education
Brexit
Defense and security
Tax
Welfare benefits
Source: YouGov polling on June 10, 2024 and Dec. 1, 2019
Note: Crime and immigration were tied on 22 percent when polled on Dec. 1, 2019, but crime polled as a higher concern on average in the ten polls prior.
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s predecessor, Liz Truss, set off an economic crisis after she announced plans for tax cuts, deregulation and borrowing.
Seven and a half million people are waiting for elective care from the National Health Service, five million more than when the Conservatives took power in 2010.
And despite Conservative pledges to reduce immigration, net migration reached an all-time high in 2023.
The loss in confidence in Conservatives to address these issues has followed a period of intense change and turmoil.
The Conservatives oversaw steep spending cuts after the 2009 financial crisis, arguing that austerity would restore public finances. Prime Minister David Cameron called the divisive Brexit referendum in 2016, and then resigned.
Since the last election, the government has had to grapple with Covid-19, an energy crunch after Russia cut gas supplies to Europe, and high inflation. It has also lurched through a series of self-inflicted crises, cycling through three prime ministers and five chancellors, who are responsible for economic policy.
The Conservatives’ most reliable voters are deserting them
More than half the people who voted for the Conservatives in the last election tell pollsters that they now plan to vote for a different party.
Most Conservative voters plan to vote for somebody else
2019 election
2024 election polling
Fewer than half
of Conservative voters
say they are sticking
with the party.
A third said they
would switch to the
Reform party.
11% plan to
switch to Labour.
6% for the
Liberal Democrats.
3% Other
Most Conservative voters plan to vote for somebody else
2019 election
2024 election polling
Fewer than half
of Conservative voters
say they are sticking
with the party.
A third said they
would switch to the
Reform party.
11% plan to
switch to Labour.
6% for the
Liberal Democrats.
3% Other
Most Conservative voters plan
to vote for somebody else
2019 election
2024 election polling
Fewer than half
of Conservative
voters say they are
sticking with
the party.
A third said they
would switch to the
Reform party.
11% plan to
switch to Labour.
6% for the
Liberal Democrats.
3% Other
Most Conservative voters plan to
vote for somebody else
2019 election
2024 polling
Fewer than half
of Conservative
voters say they
are sticking with
the party.
A third said they
would switch to
the Reform party.
11% plan to
switch to Labour.
6% for the
Liberal Democrats.
3% Other
Source: Average of YouGov polls June 6 to 18, 2024
Those voters who say they will abandon the Conservatives include some of the party’s most reliable supporters.
Over the last few decades, age has replaced class as the main predictor of political support in Britain, with Conservatives winning more older voters. In the last election, the age at which someone was more likely to vote Conservative than Labour was roughly 40 or older.
Now, polling suggests that Conservatives are only ahead in one age group: people over age 65.
How party support has changed since the 2019 election
Conservative party
Conservative support has dropped across the board, even among older voters who formed their base.
Age
18 to 24
25 to 49
50 to 64
65+
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Vote share
Labour party
Labour has gained support — except among young people, who are moving toward smaller parties, like the Greens.
Age
18 to 24
25 to 49
50 to 64
65+
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Vote share
Conservative party
Conservative support has dropped across the board, even among older voters who formed their base.
Age
18 to 24
25 to 49
50 to 64
65+
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Vote share
Labour party
Labour has gained support — except among young people, who are moving toward smaller parties, like the Greens.
Age
18 to 24
25 to 49
50 to 64
65+
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Vote share
Conservative party
Conservative support has dropped across the board, even among older voters who formed their base.
Age
18 to 24
25 to 49
50 to 64
65+
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Vote share
Labour party
Labour has gained support — except among young people, who are moving toward smaller parties, like the Greens.
Age
18 to 24
25 to 49
50 to 64
65+
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Vote share
Source: YouGov polling on June 10, 2024 and Dec. 17, 2019
Conservative candidates could be wiped out in Britain’s youngest areas, according to the latest polling from YouGov. And Labour seems poised to make a significant dent among older constituencies too, with the center-left Liberal Democrats eroding Conservative control of seats across the age groups.
In the last election, some of the most deprived areas of the country — based on factors like income, housing and health — voted for the Conservative Party for the first time.
When ballots are counted this time, polls suggest, the party’s supporters may be far less broad-based economically, given how Labour is polling among lower-income people.
At the same time, Keir Starmer, Labour’s leader, has ruthlessly moved the party to the center since taking it over, doing so at the risk of alienating some of the party’s more left-wing supporters. He has made a U-turn on a pledge to spend £28 billion per year on a green investment plan, saying that the country could no longer afford it, and he has been less critical of Israel over civilian deaths in Gaza than many supporters would like.
Polls suggest this approach is costing Labour support among 18- to 24-year-olds as they gravitate to smaller parties, including the Liberal Democrats and the Greens. The seat of Bristol Central — a city with a large amount of young, educated voters in southwest England — could be won by the Green party for the first time.
Losing seats in Labour’s historic heartlands, and beyond
After a disastrous performance in the last election, Labour needs to win an extra 120 seats in Parliament compared to the last election to gain power. It’s an extraordinary number, and a daunting task. Mr. Starmer, the party’s leader, is also unpopular, surveys show, although his standing in polling has improved throughout the campaign.
But the latest polling suggests Labour could win seats across the country and transform Britain’s electoral map.
Labour could win back its historic heartlands it lost at the last election
Labour
Conservatives
S.N.P.
Lib. Dems.
Greens
Plaid Cymru
Reform
2019 election result
2024 election estimate,
based on YouGov poll
Industrial heartlands
could return to Labour
after many backed
Boris Johnson.
No polling for
Northern Ireland.
Labour reliably carries
inner London. This year,
it may also clean up in
commuter towns.
In the south west, the
Conservatives could
also lose seats to the
Liberal Democrats.
2019 election result
2024 election estimate,
based on YouGov poll
Industrial heartlands
could return to Labour
after many backed
Boris Johnson.
No polling for
Northern Ireland.
In the south west, the
Conservatives could
also lose seats to the
Liberal Democrats.
Labour reliably carries
inner London. This year,
it may also clean up in
commuter towns.
2019 election result
2024 election estimate,
based on YouGov poll
Industrial heartlands
could return to
Labour after many
backed Boris
Johnson.
No polling for
Northern Ireland.
In the south west, the
Conservatives could
also lose seats to the
Liberal Democrats.
Labour reliably carries
inner London. This year,
it may also clean up in
commuter towns.
2019 election result
2024 election estimate,
based on YouGov poll
Industrial
heartlands could
return to Labour
after many
backed Boris
Johnson.
No polling for
Northern
Ireland.
In the south west, the
Conservatives could
also lose seats to the
Liberal Democrats.
Labour reliably carries
inner London. This year,
it may also clean up in
commuter towns.
2019 election result
2024 election estimate,
based on YouGov poll
Industrial heartlands
could return to Labour
after many backed
Boris Johnson.
No polling for
Northern Ireland.
In the south west, the
Conservatives could
also lose seats to the
Liberal Democrats.
Labour reliably carries
inner London. This year,
it may also clean up in
commuter towns.
Source: YouGov seat estimates
One key test for Labour will be whether it can win back postindustrial heartlands in the Midlands and north of England, traditionally known as the “red wall.” Many of these seats turned over to Conservative candidates for the first time in 2019 after voters there backed Brexit.
The geography of each party’s voter base is crucial in this election, as Britain’s electoral system rewards parties with highly concentrated voter bases.
The Liberal Democrats are showing particular strength in a small number of wealthier, older seats in England's south, where it is competing with the Conservative Party for seats rather than Labour. Pollsters expect it to win 30 to 50 seats, almost all at the expense of the Conservatives.
Losing Brexit voters to the far-right
One of the biggest unknowns is how well the hard-right Reform Party will perform.
Nigel Farage, who shook up the campaign in early June when he took over as Reform’s leader, hopes to capitalize on discontent among Conservative voters and rising concern about immigration to win seats in parliament. In the longer term, Farage said he hopes to be a candidate for prime minister by 2029, when the following election would be scheduled.
His gamble appears to be paying off, with a recent YouGov poll finding Reform passing the Conservatives by drawing support from nearly one in five voters surveyed.
Where Reform is finding the most support
2024 estimated vote share,
based on YouGov poll
10%
20%
30%
Not standing
Winner
White, working class areas like these overwhelmingly voted for Brexit. They are also some of Reform’s strongest areas.
Reform is polling
poorly in inner
London.
2024 estimated vote share,
based on YouGov poll
10%
20%
30%
Not standing
Winner
White, working class areas like these overwhelmingly voted for Brexit. They are also some of Reform’s strongest areas.
Reform is polling
poorly in inner London.
2024 estimated vote share,
based on YouGov poll
10%
20%
30%
Not standing
Winner
White, working class areas like these overwhelmingly voted for Brexit. They are also some of Reform’s strongest areas.
Reform is polling
poorly in inner
London.
2024 estimated vote share,
based on YouGov poll
10%
20%
30%
Not standing
Winner
White, working class areas like these overwhelmingly voted for Brexit. They are also some of Reform’s strongest areas.
Reform is polling
poorly in inner
London.
Source: YouGov seat estimates
“It’s the geography of that support that is so, so dangerous for the Conservatives,” said Will Jennings, a political science professor at the University of Southampton. Unlike the Liberal Democrats, Reform’s voter base is spread thinly across the country, and, while that makes it difficult to win seats, it could split the right-wing vote across the country and cause the Conservatives to lose more seats to Labour.
“Reform picking up 15 to 20 points in some of those constituencies would potentially allow — even if they also pick up a little bit of Labour's votes as well — Labour to overturn huge majorities,” Mr. Jennings said.